A Recent U.S. Department of Commerce Order, Now In Effect, Threatens Census Bureau Data–and the 2030 Census
The data that local and state governments rely on to navigate economic challenges and growing threats to health and safety may become less reliable or simply unavailable due to a new Department of Commerce order.
As communities across the country face greater economic challenges, exposure to climate-related pollution, and growing threats to health, safety, and well-being, the data that local and state governments rely on to navigate these challenges may become less reliable or simply unavailable. This is because of an order issued by the U.S. Department of Commerce in June 2026 that became effective immediately–without public process or a public comment period–barring the U.S. Census Bureau from using a key statistical method that balances privacy protections with data reliability and availability.
What Does the Order Do?
The order changes how the U.S. Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) protect people’s privacy in the statistical data they publish. For decades, these agencies have used a technique called “noise infusion” —adding small, randomized statistical adjustments to published data so that no individual person or household can be identified, while keeping the overall numbers reliable and providing a high level of data granularity. The order bans this method. In its place, the order directs these agencies to use “coarsening” (for example, by replacing precise numbers with broader ranges) or, as a last resort, suppression, which means not publishing the data at all.
This change is already causing real disruption. As one example, the American Community Survey (ACS), conducted and published by the U.S. Census Bureau for the past 20 years, has provided a wealth of information about demographics, social characteristics, economic status, and housing conditions in the United States. It informs everything from the development and implementation of community services and programs to housing construction to economic development policies. It is the basis for funding allocations at the local, state, and federal levels. It has been relied upon in the development of several environmental justice screening tools, including CalEnviroScreen, MiEJScreen, and EJScreen. It provides critical information about the health, welfare, and safety of people across the country and the degree to which material conditions are improving or worsening. It is typically updated annually, with a September release of one-year estimates and a December or January release of five-year estimates. Not this year.
Because the order took effect immediately, the statistical methods Census Bureau staffers rely on to produce this critical public information have been upended. As a result, the 2025 ACS 1-Year Estimates will be delayed. There is no anticipated release date in sight, as Census Bureau staff try to figure out how to comply with this order. The status of the 2025 ACS 5-Year Estimates release is also unknown.[1]
Why Is the Order Being Implemented?
As there was no public process associated with the release of the order, we cannot fully know the reasons behind this change, other than a statement in the order that noise infusion “is inconsistent with the Department’s policies” and references to confidentiality. But for an Administration that has repeatedly made demands for our private information, suggestions that concerns about the need for greater data privacy are at the root of the order are difficult to credit. Some have suggested that an ultimate objective of the order is to change the methodology under which the 2030 Census is conducted for political advantage. A year ago, Census Bureau staff provided an update on initial methodological plans for the 2030 Census that included the use of noise infusion. The lead author of that update left the Census Bureau in June and is now warning of the potential effects on data availability and integrity.
What Does This Mean for Environmental Justice and Communities?
Regarding the immediate effects of the order, those working in the environmental and climate justice space have reason to fear for the integrity and availability of American Community Survey data. At the most basic level, the ACS provides foundational information to help local, state, and federal government officials, policymakers, advocates, community service providers, educators, students, and the general populace better understand current conditions and community needs. The survey includes data on over 40 measures that can be displayed by state, county, city or place, zip code, Census tract, Tribal area, Metropolitan Statistical Area, and Congressional District. Measures include:
- Population totals, including age and gender data.
- Educational data.
- Household size.
- Racial/ethnic demographics.
- Language access information.
- Immigration statistics.
- Disability data.
- Housing conditions, including cost burdens for renters and owners.
- Health insurance coverage.
- Employment data.
- Poverty statistics, and much more.
The full effects of the order, beyond the announced delay in the release of ACS data, are yet to be known. What we do know is that the potential effects of the order on underrepresented communities and those who work on behalf of those communities could be profound. The order makes it highly likely that ACS data relating to small populations will either be less accurate or unavailable. Examples of where small numbers in ACS data could be affected include Census tracts with:
- A high level of ethnic and/or racial diversity where numbers may be too small to be presented accurately.
- Small numbers of households with older adults, families with small children, or disabled persons, where the ability to tailor programs and services to individual needs will be lost.
- Rural areas and Tribal communities with small populations where disaggregation on any number of measures may not be possible.
In addition to the threats the order may pose to the 2030 Census, the order fundamentally obstructs a public right to Census data. Ultimately, these data present a distinct and invaluable picture of communities across the country. The public has a right to such information. Without it, our ability to care for one another and strengthen our communities–especially smaller communities that are already vulnerable–may be impeded.
